Bangladesh Pushes for Stronger Safeguards as Ganges Water Deal With India Approaches End

With less than two months remaining before the 1996 Ganges water-sharing treaty expires, Bangladeshi authorities are intensifying efforts to lock in a successor agreement with India, warning that the absence of a clear framework could leave large stretches of the country short of water during the critical dry months.

The existing treaty, which has governed the division of flows at the Farakka Barrage since December 1996, is due to lapse on 12 December 2026. It was designed to allocate water between the two countries during the lean season, when the river's volume drops sharply. In Bangladesh the same waterway is known as the Padma, and its reduced flows already affect agriculture, fisheries and groundwater recharge across the northwest and southwest. Officials in Dhaka say the next arrangement must contain firmer minimum-flow guarantees—something closer to the short-term 1977 accord—so that Bangladesh is not left without a predictable share when upstream conditions worsen.

Farmers in the Barind region describe how the river has become little more than a trickle for weeks at a time. Rice and wheat fields that once relied on canal irrigation now depend on increasingly scarce groundwater, raising costs and cutting yields. Fishermen farther downstream report that traditional catches have dwindled, forcing many to switch to pond culture. Environmental researchers add that lower freshwater volumes in the Gorai River allow saltwater to push deeper into the Sundarbans, threatening both mangrove health and the livelihoods of people living on the forest fringe.

Technical talks continue through the Joint Rivers Commission, but progress has been slow. The last high-level ministerial meeting of the commission occurred years earlier, and Bangladeshi negotiators say concrete proposals for a revised treaty have not yet drawn a detailed response from the Indian side. India maintains that river issues are handled through established bilateral channels, yet no timeline for concluding a new deal has been made public. The lack of an automatic extension clause means the two governments must actively agree on a replacement or risk entering the next dry season without formal rules.

Political circumstances further complicate the picture. Ties between Dhaka and New Delhi have been strained since the political transition of 2024, when former Prime Minister Sheikh Hasina—who signed the 1996 treaty—left for India. While some diplomatic signals have suggested that a high-level visit might occur before the deadline, nothing has been confirmed. In the meantime Bangladesh has approved construction of the Padma Barrage, a multi-billion-dollar project meant to store and redistribute water inside its own borders. Planners acknowledge, however, that the barrage alone cannot offset a sustained drop in upstream supply.

Climate change adds another layer of uncertainty. Both countries face rising demand for irrigation and domestic use while monsoon patterns grow more erratic. Experts on both sides of the border have called for any new treaty to incorporate updated hydrological data, environmental-flow requirements and mechanisms for joint monitoring. Without those elements, they argue, future disputes could become harder to manage.

For communities living along the Padma the diplomatic calendar is more than an abstract deadline. The volume of water that crosses the border next dry season will determine whether canals stay open, whether fish stocks recover and whether saltwater intrusion continues to advance. Bangladeshi officials insist they remain ready to negotiate on the basis of mutual benefit, yet they also underline that water security for an agriculture-dependent population cannot be left unresolved. Until a new agreement is signed, uncertainty will continue to hang over the river and the millions who depend on it.